Saturday, March 17, 2007

The Wash or the Shake-Out

A rose by any other name is just as sweet.
A crow by any other name is just as black.

A rich professional investor who has taken a liking to a stock finds that the price has gotten too far. He wishes to take a sizable stake of it but does not wish to buy high and sell higher. To him that would be too costly and too risky.

He waits for a correction or consolidation phrase. He knows where you put your stop-loss. A few well-placed sell-orders below the support line will do the trick.

As soon as your stop-loss is triggered, there will be a stampede for the exit door.

Longs on margins and on T+3 become scared. They run helter-skelter and dispose of their shares in earnest. Those on charts, who are not so smart, add fuel to the fire.

The professional calmly scoops up his intended buy at undervalued prices. After the episode, things soon calm down. The stock reverts to its uptrend with you being deprived of your stocks, and cursing your bad luck when you are actually being played out.

Don’t be fooled by such manipulation. Know the intention behind the action. Know the intrinsic value of your shares. You will have a better chance to live and fight for another day.

Price has memory. What happened the last time, it hit a certain level? Chances are that it will do it again. If you don’t study history, you are doomed to repeat it.